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Russia’s Rising Potential

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In this modern age of geopolitics, exponential rise of Russia as a superpower evidenced since the collapsed of Soviet Union. The fundamentals of Superpower entail “dominant position in international relation which is accompanied by its unparalleled ability to exert potential influence or project power on global scale”. History shows that there were many superpowers asserted prominence rapidly or throughout centuries and some eventually faded. Since the end of World War 2 and the Collapse of Soviet Union, there were two superpowers USSR and USA stirring bipolarity. Thus, the trajectory of USSR, instigated unipolar world of USA, subsequently, forming multipolar world. Fomenting superpower, there are five dimensions which needs to be satisfied for Russia’s rising potential are, geography, population, economy, military and diplomacy as discussed below. The inflated hegemony of USA contributed towards the enhancement of Russia’s military potential and formidable superpower.

 

First Geographically, Russia has the largest land, which comprises of 17 million square kilometers, extents Europe, Asia and dominates over Artic. As per Alfred Marshal, “Sea Power is the Key Power to the World Power”.

 

Secondly, the significant of population purports the confinement of the state and contributes to the GDP of the country, which ultimately bolster the power of the state. The population of Russia consist of “145 millions of 185 diverse ethnic groups” pursuance to the report of UN. Therefore, 81% of population is Russian, followed by Tatars and Ukrainians. Thus, the pivot of population contributes to the growth and subsequently flourishing the agenda of foreign policy.  Thirdly, the essential of the economy renders rampant role of the country to fabricate innovative technology and formulate foreign policy. If the economy is at the daggers dawn, then there is an unlikely chance for the country to initiate military role externally and compete with foreign forces. The economy of Russia was in a down cycle, before the rise of Vladamir Putin resulting from the sanctions imposed by Western States. The attrition of the economy proposed by Vladmir Putin by “introducing a flat income tax of 13 percent and simplifying business regulations”. During the first two presidential term of Putin, the real incomes enhanced by 250 percent, real wages tripled and poverty was reduced by certain extent. The decline of revenue in 2016 resulted due to oil and gas price shrinkage as a result of sanctions. The estimated GDP growth for 2017 according to International Monetary Fund was about $1.283 trillion, which puts Russia in 6th in the World. Yet, the predicament of the Russian economy is rampant corruption, to which, Russia is burning curdle at both ends to fight the concerned dilemmas. According to US Company, Bloomberg, Russia has diversified resources ranging from patent to high-tech companies to bolster the economy. Moreover, Russia contains 30% of the World’s natural resources pursuance to the World Bank report, and an estimated natural resource comprises of $75 trillion US dollars.

 

Fourthly, the rapid growth of military spending in Russia, enhanced since the fall of Soviet Union. The adversaries of Russia are US and its allies around the world, including NATO which aims to disparage the potential rise of Russia as world power. The worrisome of Russia is nuclear weapons of United States, which purportedly formed aggressive new Nuclear Posture Review towards Russia in 2018. Since the beck and call of Crimea in 2014 by Russia, US imposed obstructive sanctions and policies towards Russia to circumvent the potential rise of military power, which led Russia beeline towards China. To destabilize Western democracies Russia undertook aggressive campaign and conducted large-scale military exercises near NATO territory minatory to European countries in the Baltics.  Russian military is the second largest military power in the world and probably first in nuclear arsenal which aim to browbeat the hegemony of United States, that influence spread its dominance in the world. The capabilities of Russian military power have spurred by demonstrating military strikes in Syria with the use of advanced weapons like SU-355S fighter jet, Kalibr-NK cruise missile, TU-160 long range bombers. The increase of Russian export weapon is the direct result of their capability in Syrian Conflict, which aims to damage the influence of US. The Institute of Strategic Studies (ISS) indicates that Russian military spending has shown increment of 15.7 percent of federal expenditure in 2013 to 20.6 percent by 2016. The invention of scary weapon by Putin in 2018 March laid formidable threat to the American defense and the world at large. Fifth, Russian diplomacy outrage the interest of US, which led US withdrawn from the negotiations on the Syrian ceasefire.

 

In pith and marrow, the above proven dimensions of superpower show rise of Russia resulted in multipolar world in geopolitics. Russia undermine the U.S diplomatic Posture across the world at large and tries to fill the vacuum resulting from U.S President Donald Trump’s “America First” Foreign policy. As America is pushing itself into the bottomless pit by isolating it from various treaties and agreements. All such acts of United States would potentially result in isolationism, and eventually would give clear pathway to Russia to assert its influence in the multipolar world. Hence, the potential rise of Russia is advanced with innovative weapons and enhanced economy including the member of Shanghai Corporation Organization (SCO) in which China is the leading member, which ultimately would undermine the hegemony of United States.

Sher Afghan

Sher Afghan

An experienced legal professional (LLB, BCom & LLM) with a reputation for integrity, innovative thinking and a proven understanding of the law and legal system in New South Wales and Lahore. Aside from a lawyer, I am a Confident communicator and writer who is able to liaise directly with statutory agencies and non-statutory agencies, Research Societies, Educational institutions and other legal and non-legal parties.